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Will an isolationist pivot by the U.S. ultimately increase or decrease global defense spending over the next decade?
Click here to take the poll and don’t forget to share your thoughts in the WSB comments section.
Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:
Iran war: The world’s most populous country warns of ‘considerable downside’ to growth and Yemen’s Houthis enter the conflict.
Sun Belt: Apollo Global (APO) is considering opening a second U.S. headquarters, with South Florida and Texas emerging as leading options.
Regulatory front: The U.S. Treasury is set to consult insurance regulators on rising private credit risks, while WTO members discuss extending a digital trade tariff ban.
The focus on U.S. troop deployment has been in the Middle East, given the possibility of a ground invasion in Iran or the takeover of Kharg Island. The latter hosts the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure and is its powerful economic export engine. Thousands of U.S. Marines (31st and 11th MEUs) and paratroopers (82nd Airborne) have been deployed to the region to give President Trump additional options, but a spotlight is also growing on America’s military presence across the globe.
Snapshot: The second biggest party in the German parliament, the ascendant AfD, made waves over the weekend after calling for the total removal of the approximately 40,000 U.S. troops and American nukes currently stationed in Germany. Berlin must achieve a “more independent foreign policy,” said AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla, and should no longer be “drawn into international conflicts” by Washington. He also pointed to Spain, where the socialist government led by Pedro Sánchez has opposed U.S. action against Iran and restricted the use of its bases for military operations. Earlier, the U.K. notably refused usage of its strategic military base in Diego Garcia.
“Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz… COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!” President Trump declared earlier this month. “We spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on NATO… and we would have always been there for them, but now, based on their actions, I guess we don’t have to be. Why would we be there for them? If they’re not there for us.”
Coming shift? Reports suggest that the White House is entertaining a “pay-to-play” NATO model that would remove voting rights from member states that don’t meet a proposed 5% of GDP defense spending target. Members who fail to pay could also be excluded from decisions on expansion, joint missions, and invoking Article 5. Similar reports indicate that President Trump has considered pulling American troops out of Germany (or relocating them within Europe), and has been weighing such a move since returning to office last year. Take the WSB survey.
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Buy The Dip: Best Stocks To Buy As Stagflation Fear Overshadows Growth Potential
Credo: Alphabet Just Announced A Game Changer
Micron Is Still One Of The Best Stocks In This Current Market
Big BDC Dividend Yields: 1 Golden Opportunity And 1 Value Trap
The Market’s Decline May Be Just Getting Started
What else is happening…
Where to lean in a fat-tailed jigsaw puzzle market – Goldman Sachs.
Greenland Energy (GLND) signs drilling deal with Stampede (STPDF).
DeepSeek (DEEPSEEK) experiences longest outage since launch.
Project Hail Mary keeps box office orbit as horror crowd starts to thin out.
Meta’s (META) court losses spell trouble for AI research, customer safety.
Solid-state battery breakthrough claims spark skepticism in auto industry.
Bank of America (BAC) to pay millions to settle Epstein victims’ lawsuit.
Trump has ‘no problem’ if a country sends oil to Cuba, even Russia.
Australia to halve fuel tax to shield consumers from surging costs.
SA Asks: What happens if the Medicare Hospital Insurance fund runs dry?
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan -2.8%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China +0.2%. India -2.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris flat. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude +1.9% to $101.55. Gold +0.8% to $4,561.40. Bitcoin +1.4% to $67,369.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 4.41%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Fortress Biotech (FBIO).
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.