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Bitcoin avoids major volatility as a new Middle East conflict breaks out, but traders are hardly bullish.
- Long-term BTC price patterns lead to a fresh $45,000 target.
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Iran tensions form the week’s macro focus as analysis dismisses the idea of “World War Three.”
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Inflation risks could provide a reason for the US to keep the Iran offensive as short as possible.
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Bitcoin institutional inflows are finally teasing a major turnaround after months of decline.
Bitcoin survives Iran conflict outbreak — for now
Bitcoin price action fought off the urge to sell despite the Iran conflict playing out during low-liquidity weekend trading conditions.
Data from TradingView shows a trip to near $63,000 marked the climax of the initial market reaction before a sustained rebound kicked in.
Now, traders see events continuing to favor crypto market stability.
“If it’s a bloodbath (unlikely imo), then I’ll long Bitcoin around $61k-$60k ahead of de-escalation talk news,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread on X.
CrypNuevo suggested that de-escalation would form a pivotal trigger for the markets in the coming days and argued that anything else would be counterproductive for the US government.
“The truth is that this war is not convenient for Donald Trump in a midterm election year, here’s why: A long conflict would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time leading oil prices to increase, and consequently, US CPI inflation would spike. And that won’t happen,” he wrote.
Trader Crypto Tony, meanwhile, eyed $62,000 as a potential BTC long entry.
We still have the untested range low at $62,200. Something to keep an eye on for possible long entries this week pic.twitter.com/C2ryTMvRZi
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) March 2, 2026
Others warned of repeat bearish price action with the formation of triangle structures as part of an ongoing downtrend.
“$BTC has been following the same pattern again and again,” trader BitBull summarized.
“I think there’ll be a pump above $74K to trap late buyers before the next big dump.”
$45,000 joins bearish BTC price targets
Bearish BTC price predictions remain firmly in force across longer time frames.
A lack of momentum among bulls, who have been unable to recapture even nearby support levels, is leading to increasingly bleak market forecasts for 2026.
One trend line now back in focus for independent analyst Filbfilb is calling for a further 50% BTC price dive.
“In every instance since inception, a weekly close below the yellow band has resulted in a c.40-50% correction,” Filbfilb told X followers alongside a chart showing historical price performance.
“Levels c. $40-45k for the bands at the moment. A bounce off around $50k is not impossible, but ultimately, the price has met the lower band.”
In subsequent discussions, a rescue level emerged for the weekly close, with this still out of reach on Monday at $72,000.
The $45,000 zone, Cointelegraph reported, is already a popular target for a long-term BTC price floor.
In a post on his Telegram trading channel, Filbfilb added that open interest trends are also mimicking Bitcoin’s last bear market. Open interest is rising while price itself is falling, indicating increasing short activity.
Analysis on Iran: “This is NOT World War Three”
With little US inflation data due this week, attention will stay focused on the Middle East and broader geopolitical instability.
Iran events sparked 7% WTI crude oil price rises on Monday, while Asian stock markets traded lower as tensions appeared worldwide.
Volatility was palpable as markets sought to digest the implications of a military campaign against Iran that US President Donald Trump said could last a month.
“Combat operations continue at this time in full force and they will continue until all our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives,” Trump said in a televised address on Sunday.
Crypto markets reined in volatility throughout the weekend, and as TradFi markets returned, Bitcoin preserved $65,000 as support.
“Approximately $300m in long liquidations were triggered as the news broke, a notable but contained figure, particularly relative to the more disorderly deleveraging events observed in early February,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update.
“The comparatively modest scale of forced selling suggests that positioning had already been materially lightened in recent weeks.”
QCP noted that the previous Iran upheaval in June 2025 resulted in only brief BTC price divergences before the then-active uptrend continued.
“While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself,” it added.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter had similar conclusions about markets’ reactions overall. Oil prices, it argued, were not indicative of panic.
“This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise,” it told X followers.
US inflation in focus with oil volatility
As Cointelegraph reported earlier, however, concerns have surfaced over the Iran conflict’s longer-term impact on US inflation.
Thanks to risks to oil trade routes, notably the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings in particular are now under the microscope. February CPI is due for release on March 11, with over a month remaining until the weekend’s events begin to show up in the numbers.
“A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil prices above $100 per barrel, according [to] our analysis, which would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%,” Kobeissi wrote in an X post on the topic.
Recent US inflation prints have overshot expectations, some by a considerable margin, leaving markets sensitive to any surprise catalysts.
“A jump in oil prices could have major implications on the outlook for inflation,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Changes in energy prices can drive fluctuations in headline inflation, with a study by the Federal Reserve estimating that every $10 increase in the price of oil adds 0.20% headline inflation.”
Mosaic likened the current situation to the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, warning that geopolitics was not the only oil-price tailwind at work.
“Energy prices were a major contributor to an inflation wave that peaked in 2022 at the highest level in over 40 years,” it continued.
“While the conflict in the Middle East will be a major catalyst for movement in energy prices, a prolonged period of underinvestment in various energy and industrial commodities was already setting the stage for a rally.”
Kobeissi nonetheless argued that Trump’s own policy to “eliminate inflation” and cut gas prices would see an effort to keep any knock-on effects under control.
“A prolonged war with Iran would work in the opposite direction of these key initiatives, particularly in the short-term during a crucial midterm election year. We think Trump aims for a short and swift operation and markets prevail once again as the dust settles,” it concluded.
Higher inflation reduces the odds of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and, in turn, cuts the prospect of liquidity inflows to crypto and risk assets. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a mere 4.4% chance of a cut at the Fed’s March meeting.
Bitcoin ETF flows flip bullish
Amid lackluster BTC price action and acceptance of a new bear market beginning, institutional inflows are causing a stir for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Related: Crypto taxes updated, BTC stuck below $70K: Month in charts
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw three consecutive days of net inflows totaling more than $1 billion. Friday saw only a modest net outflow of $27.5 million, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors.
“Lately, the crypto markets has been showing some very specific on-chain signals that suggest a major shift in how Bitcoin is moving between different types of investors,” CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha commented in a “Quicktake” blog post on Monday.
Taha said that the latest uptick in inflows represented the first “meaningful” accumulation since last October, around the time of Bitcoin’s $126,200 all-time high.
“This marks the first noticeable accumulation wave after months of stagnation or decline,” he added.
“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to be constructive for price, while declining demand often aligns with price weakness.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that institutional Bitcoin investor resolve would only strengthen in time, with a new influx of buyers less interested in selling on short-term price moves.
“Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out. And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital,” EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson explained.
“2017: retail sold at $20K. 2021: funds sold at $69K. 2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.”
Jackson called the recent exodus of ETF buyers the “purification” of the long-term Bitcoin bull case.
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