The seats fell vacant following the deaths of sitting Congress MLAs, making these contests heavily influenced by sympathy and local leadership factors rather than state-wide political trends.
Historically, both seats have leaned towards Congress. Congress Spokesperson B L Shankar pointed out that “these two constituencies have been under Congress control for many years,” adding that Davanagere, in particular, has “a strong Congress worker base and organisation”.
He also emphasised the role of leadership legacy, saying the deceased MLAs were widely popular figures, which could further benefit their successors in the election, where individual credibility often outweighs party shifts.
Analysts say the Congress’s twin strategy, backing political families while signalling outreach to Muslim voters, reflects a compulsion of winnability rather than choice. Political analyst Dr Harish Ramaswamy noted, “Congress does not have any alternative.
They think sympathy votes will help them win,” pointing to the party’s reliance on family candidates after the deaths of influential MLAs: Shamanur Shivashankarappa from Davanagere South and Hullappa Yamanappa Meti from Bagalkote.
Election analyst Dr Sandeep Shastry emphasised that bypolls are shaped less by larger political narratives and more by local factors.
“By-elections have their own local specificity. It has very little to do with whether it is a referendum on a government,” he said. He added that when a seat becomes vacant after a leader’s death, sympathy among voters often benefits a close family member who is fielded as a candidate.
In Davanagere South, the choice of Samarth Mallikarjun reflects the continuing influence of the Shamanur family. However, analysts flagged internal tensions during the selection process. Political analyst Narayana A described early nomination filings by aspirants as “a bargaining technique to put pressure on the leadership,” indicating underlying factionalism.
On voter behaviour, Shastri said that although Muslim voters are an important segment, they do not form a majority on their own. He added that they tend to vote strategically and have largely supported the Congress in previous elections.
Unity remains key. Narayana cautioned that internal divisions could prove costly, especially if key voter groups feel sidelined. “If the Muslims decide not to support the Congress, how the Congress is going to win the seat is going to be a question,” he said, highlighting potential risks.
What is BJP’s strategy?
BJP had announced its candidates earlier, naming Srinivas T Dasakariyappa for Davanagere South and Veerabhadrayya Charantimath for Bagalkote.
BJP spokesperson M G Mahesh expressed confidence about victory and alleging large-scale anti-incumbency against the Congress government.
He criticised bad administration and corruption, pointed to internal bickering within Congress and framed the BJP’s nominations as backing a common worker and a unified organisation. He added that the party would focus on development and local issues.
Ramaswamy noted that the BJP has attempted to nominate someone who has been actively working at the grassroots, adding that “in the longer run it is the BJP which is going to have a stronger route”. He also said that while Davanagere South may favour Congress, Bagalkote could be a winnable seat for the BJP.
Looking at the future
For the Congress, retaining both seats is crucial to sustaining its political momentum midway through its term. Narayana noted that if the party fails to hold these constituencies, it could signal that “anti-incumbency is setting in”.
For the BJP, these bypolls are an opportunity to challenge Congress’s dominance. As analysts opine, the results will ultimately hinge on local dynamics such as sympathy, social coalitions, and organisational unity rather than any broader political wave.
The Election Commission of India has scheduled polling for the Bagalkote and Davanagere South Assembly bye-elections on April 9, with counting set for May 4.
(The writer is an intern with businessline)
Published on March 22, 2026