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Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:
Bumpy ride: Oil volatility continues as the IEA eyes its largest release of oil reserves, while this U.S. official’s deleted tweet fuels uncertainty.
AI boom: Oracle (ORCL) shares are soaring after the IT giant posted stellar results and raised its 2027 outlook on the back of AI strength.
Partner support: Microsoft (MSFT) backed Anthropic (ANTHRO) in its legal fight over the Pentagon’s blacklisting of the AI startup.
Inflation will take center stage on Wall Street today, as the Consumer Price Index report for February will be released this morning. While oil’s rally because of the Iran war has been dominating headlines, it’s not expected to show a significant impact on February’s inflation print.
What to expect: Economists on average expect February CPI to increase 0.3% over the prior month, compared to January’s 0.2% rise. On a year-over-year basis, CPI is seen advancing 2.4% — matching January’s rate. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 2.5% Y/Y. “Underlying inflation pressures revealed by today’s data should be benign,” said UBS’ Paul Donovan. “The near 27% increase in gasoline prices from January lows will not register in today’s data, but consumers will notice soaring prices for selected grocery items.” February’s CPI data “could point to lingering upward pressure from tariffs on goods prices,” ING economists said.
Spring pickup: Prediction markets show that participants are largely aligned with economist projections for February CPI, with bets favoring 2.4% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M. But bets for March signal expectations of CPI picking up pace to 2.8% Y/Y, as a result of oil’s rally driven by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. CPI readings will likely see upward pressure this spring due to the Gulf oil shock, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. It forecast core CPI peaking in July, after which it may trend lower and eventually fall below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in 2027. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that if oil prices stay elevated for three months, headline CPI could rise from 2.4% Y/Y in January to 3% Y/Y in May.
SA commentary: Markets may not react much to the CPI report, according to Investing Group Leader Chris Lau, as traders will be focused on continued tensions in Iran and shipment delays through the Strait of Hormuz. SA analyst Damir Tokic echoed this view, but warned that the current geopolitical situation will likely create more frequent spikes in commodity and food prices, and supply chain bottlenecks. “Thus, investors are underpricing long-term inflation by assuming a well-anchored inflation consistent with the Fed’s 2% target,” he added. Fill Up Your Car, Things Could Get Worse
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Oil Shock: 5 Top Energy Stocks
Advanced Micro Devices: Doubling Down On $600
5 Relatively Secure And Cheap Dividend Stocks, Yields Up To 8% (March 2026)
March Madness Dividends: Why We Are Betting On The Rebound
What else is happening…
Trump unveils plan for first new U.S. oil refinery in 50 years.
Exxon (XOM) to move legal home to business-friendly Texas.
Chevron, Shell (SHEL) nearing Venezuela production deals.
Jumbo bond sale: Amazon eyes raising $37B for AI buildout.
JPMorgan (JPM) marks down loans of private credit groups.
Pershing Square (PSUS) IPO: Structure, leverage and HHH.
Boeing (BA): Wiring issue to slow some 737 Max deliveries.
Centene (CNC) drops as CEO cites Obamacare headwinds.
Google (GOOGL) unveils new Gemini Embedding 2 model.
DOJ releases uniform corporate criminal enforcement policy.
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.4%. Hong Kong -0.2%. China +0.3%. India -1.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -1%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +4.1% to $86.87. Gold -0.8% to $5,201.30. Bitcoin -1.9% to $69,527.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.17%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include UiPath (PATH) and Campbell’s (CPB).
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.