Equatorial and east Pacific ocean is projected to warm up aggressively as represented by ‘plumes’ heading sharply north in the consequential NINO3.4 region.
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ECMWF
Supports Japanese outlook
This corroborates analysis made by two Japan-based scientists in an interview to businessline earlier. The sweeping nature of the ECMWF analysis and the heavy bias tend to indicate that a moderate to strong El Niño is there for the asking this year, tempered for Indian context and the south-west monsoon only by prospects of beneficial positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurring in tandem.
Strong to very strong
Swadhin Behera, Director, Application Research Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Jamstec), visiting professor at The University of Tokyo had estimated a strong to very strong El Niño to roll out as the current La Niña fades out. Its SINTEX-F model indicated possibility of a positive IOD, when sea-surface temperatures are warmer locally in West Indian Ocean relative to the East basin, largely mimicking what happens in the Pacific during El Niño/La Niña phases setting off weather changes across the globe.
Super El Niño
Saji Hameed, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering/Division of Computer Science, University of Aizu, Tokyo, had gone on to suggest that the event could go on to become a super El Niño, with a positive IOD playing out in tandem, in a throwback to the 1997-98 situation. Despite being an El Niño year, India had received a good monsoon thanks apparently to the concurrent positive IOD phase.
String westerly winds
The ECMWF has forecast that trade winds in the Pacific that usually blow from east to west may get neutralised by westerly winds in the opposite direction (west to east), spreading the warm water from west to east. While parked in the west, this warm pool had underwritten the La Niña phase in 2025, aiding the cause of neighbouring Australia and South-East Asia, and by extension to India.
Coupling to unfold
The ECMWF reported three such big westerly wind bursts (powered by so-called Kelvin waves) having already occurred, shifting warm ocean water from west to east across the Pacific. El Niño is a coupled climatic phenomenon involving both the ocean and the atmosphere. While the ocean in the east has already started warming, support from the atmosphere above is also being assured with suitable and gradual changes likely unfolding between the lead-points of Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti.
MJO can hasten
Kelvin waves can sometimes lose strength and peter out. But so far this season, they have largely held to their strength and more than countered the usually dominant trade winds. Arrival of a rain and cloud-packed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave can only further escalate the process. ECMWF keeps a much weaker mean MJO signal until March 24 thanks to potential for stronger Kelvin Wave activity. This faster moving wave mode is projected to move out ahead of the slower main convective MJO envelope.
Published on March 8, 2026