Cereals, especially rice, fruits, vegetables, spices, meat, dairy and beverages are all likely to be affected if the war goes on for a longer period, it highlighted.
“Because many Indian farm products depend heavily on Gulf markets, continued disruption could directly affect farmers, food processors and exporters across several Indian states,” Ajay Srivastava, Founder, GTRI, pointed out.
Rice exports face the largest potential impact. India’s exports of rice to West Asia in 2025 at $4.43billion, accounted for 36.7 per cent of its global rice exports, making Gulf markets crucial for producers in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, it highlighted.
The very high risk products—where more than 70 per cent of India’s exports go to West Asia—include sheep and goat meat (98.9 per cent), fresh or chilled beef (97.4 per cent), copra or dried coconut kernel (83.9 per cent), beer (81 per cent), bananas and plantains (79.6 per cent), and nutmeg, mace and cardamom (70.5 per cent).
“These sectors are the most exposed because Gulf markets account for overwhelming majority of India’s exports,” the report pointed out.
High-risk products, where roughly 40–60 per cent of exports depend on the region, include butter and dairy fats (58.1 per cent), soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages (55.6 per cent), coconut and palm kernel oil (52.5 per cent), manufactured tobacco products (50.9 per cent), other fresh vegetables (50.8 per cent), cheese and curd (47.8 per cent), other fresh fruits (44.8 per cent), tea (44.1 per cent), sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil (42.2 per cent), and cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos (40 per cent).
Medium-risk products, where about one-quarter to one-third of exports go to West Asia, include rice (36.7 per cent), coconuts and cashew nuts (35.8 per cent), frozen beef (28.9 per cent), processed fruits and nuts (27.6 per cent), onions, garlic and related vegetables (26.9 per cent), spice seeds such as cumin and coriander (23.4 per cent), spices such as ginger and turmeric (23 per cent), and dried pulses (21.9 per cent).
Lower-risk products, where dependence on West Asia is relatively limited, include coffee (17.7 per cent), bread, biscuits and bakery products (17.7 per cent), raw tobacco (16.9 per cent), other food preparations (16.9 per cent), sugar (16.4 per cent), and crustaceans such as shrimp and prawns (4.3 per cent).
“If instability around the Strait of Hormuz persists, the impact could ripple through India’s agricultural economy, highlighting the need for exporters to diversify markets and reduce excessive dependence on a single region,” the report said.
Published on March 7, 2026