The benchmark indices witnessed a bounce initially last week but failed to sustain. They fell towards the end of the week giving away all gains. This pattern of moving up in the first half and then falling later is happening for the second consecutive week. It indicates the absence of strong buyers to take the indices higher. This also shows that the overall picture is still weak. That leaves the downside open for the Nifty, Sensex and the Nifty Bank to fall more from here.
However, key supports are coming up which will need a close watch. We will have to wait and see if the indices are managing to bounce back from there or not.
Selling spree
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold Indian equities for the fourth consecutive week. The equity segment saw a net outflow of about $2.73 billion. The month of March has seen an outflow of about $12.3 billion.
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Nifty 50 (22,819.60)
Short-term view: The weakness persists. The downside remains open to see 22,300-22,200. A bounce from there can take the Nifty higher to 23,500-23,700 or 24,000. This can keep the index in a range of 22,200-24,000 for some time.
A rise above 24,000 is needed ideally to get some relief. Nifty will come under more selling pressure if it breaks below 22,200. If that happens, 21,700 can be seen on the downside.
Our preference will be to see the Nifty sustaining above 22,200 and rise back to 23,500-23,700.
Medium-term view: The region between 22,200-22,000 will continue to be the crucial support. A bounce from there and a subsequent rise above 24,000 will be bullish to revisit 26,000-26,400. That will also keep the broader sideways range intact.
As mentioned last week, Nifty has to breach 26,400 to bring back the bullish outlook of seeing 28,000 and 30,000 on the upside. For this to happen, Nifty has to sustain above 22,000.
Nifty will come under danger of further fall only if it breaks below 22,000 and declines below 21,700 eventually.
Nifty Bank (52,274.60)
Short-term view: An immediate support is at 52,200. Nifty Bank index looks vulnerable to break this support. Such a break can drag it down to 50,800-50,500 and not beyond that.
A bounce from the 50,800-50,500 support zone can take the Nifty Bank index higher to 54,000 again. A decisive break above 54,000 is needed to get some relief.
Medium-term view: The region around 50,500 is a crucial support. A bounce from there and a subsequent rise above 54,000 are needed to turn the sentiment positive. Only then the upside will open up for a rise to 60,000 again in the medium term.
That in turn will bring back the chances of seeing 64,000-65,000 and 68,000-69,000 in the long term.
But if the Nifty Bank index breaks below 50,500, there is a danger of seeing 48,000 on the downside. So, the price action around 50,500 will need a close watch.
Sensex (73,583.22)
Short-term view: The intermediate support at 72,800 has held well last week. But failure to sustain the bounces has increased the chances of the Sensex breaking below 72,800 this week. Such a break can drag the index down to 72,250, the next important support.
We expect the Sensex to sustain above 72,250 and rise back to 76,000-77,000.
Medium-term view: As mentioned last week, 72,250 is a crucial support. We repeat that a bounce from 72,250 and a subsequent rise above 77,500 will be bullish. It can then take the Sensex higher to 85,000-86,000 in the medium term. An eventual rise above 86,000 will then bring back the earlier bullish view of seeing 90,000 and 98,000-99,000 in the long term.
Sensex has to decline below 72,000 to come under danger of further fall.
Nifty Midcap 150 (19,952.75)
The fall to 19,200 almost happened last week. There is no major change in the view. Important support is in the 19,200-19,000 region which can be tested in the short term.
We expect the Nifty Midcap 150 index to sustain above 19,000 and rise back to 21,000 again.
A subsequent rise above 21,000 will then take the index higher to 22,800 over the medium term. From a big picture, Nifty Midcap 150 index has to breach 22,800 in order to bring back the earlier bullish view of seeing 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.
On the other hand, if the index breaks below 19,000, a fall to 18,300-18,000 can be seen.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (14,655.35)
The crucial support level of 14,000 seems to be holding well. However, the index seems to lack strength for a sustained bounce.
We retain our broader bullish view. As long as the Nifty Smallcap 250 index stays above 14,000, there is the potential to rise back and breach 16,000. Such a break will strengthen the momentum to target 22,500-23,000 in the long term.
As mentioned last week, the bullish view will get negated only if the index breaks below 14,000. If that happens, 13,000 can be seen on the downside.
Published on March 28, 2026