However, on the charts, strong long-term supports are coming up. We expect the support to halt this fall and trigger a reversal. We reiterate that this fall will be giving us a very good long-term buying opportunity.
FPIs sell
The Foreign Portfolio Investors sold heavily last week. The equity segment saw a net outflow of about $2.29 billion. The FPIs can continue to sell more as the war situation is unlikely to ease soon.
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Nifty 50 (24,450.45)
Short-term view: The outlook is negative. Resistances are at 24,900 and 25,000. A higher resistance is around 25,300.
Nifty can fall to 24,000 from here. A break below 24,000 can drag it further down to 23,500 in the short term. But thereafter, we expect the index to reverse higher and go back up to 25,000.
Nifty has to surpass 25,300 in order to bring back the earlier bullishness into the picture.
Medium-term view: We retain our broader bullish view in spite of the recent fall. We reiterate that 24,000-23,500 will be a strong support. As long as the Nifty stays above this support, there is no danger for the broader uptrend.
So, we continue to retain our view of the Nifty targeting 27,500-28,000 in the medium term and 30,000-31,000 in the long term.
Our bullish view will go wrong only if Nifty declines below 23,500. In that case, the downside will open up for an extended fall to 22,000 and even lower.
Nifty Bank (57,783.25)
Short-term view: Last week, we had expected the support at 59,100 to hold and the Nifty Bank index to bounce back from there. That view has gone wrong.
Immediate support is now at 57,500. Below that, 56,900 is the next support. We can expect a fall to 56,900 this week. A bounce can take the Nifty Bank index back up to 59,000 again. That in turn will give some relief.
But a break below 56,900 will increase the downside pressure and drag the index down to 56,000 or even lower. So, the price action around 56,900 will need a very close watch this week.
Medium-term view: Crucial supports are at 56,000 and 54,000-53,500. It is not very clear as of now whether the current fall will halt at 56,000 itself or extend to 54,000-53,500.
But as long as the index stays above 53,500, there will not be any disruption in the broader uptrend. As such, we continue to retain our bullish view of seeing a rise to 64,000-65,000 in the medium term and 68,000-69,000 in the long term.
This bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below 53,500.
Sensex (78,918.90)
Short-term view: Contrary to our expectation, Sensex has declined sharply below the support level of 80,100.
Resistances are now at 79,500, 80,200 and 80,700. Sensex can fall to 77,000 from here. A bounce thereafter will give some relief and take it higher to 80,000 or even higher.
The downside can extend up to 76,000-75,500 if Sensex fails to bounce back from around 77,000
Medium-term view: Strong support is in the 76,000-75,500 region. A fall beyond 75,500 might be difficult. A strong bounce from this support zone will keep the broader uptrend intact.
For now, we retain our view of the Sensex targeting 89,000-90,000 in the medium term and 98,000-99,000 in the long term. Considering the recent sharp fall, the aforementioned rise is going to take much more time than anticipated earlier.
Nifty Midcap 150 (21,181.80)
The support at 21,000 seems to be holding well after the fall below 21,500 last week. The Nifty Midcap 150 index touched a low of 20,850 and has bounced back from there.
Crucial short-term supports are at 20,850 and 20,750. If the index manages to sustain above this support, a rise back to 21,800-22,000 is possible in the coming weeks.
But a break below 20,750 can increase the downside pressure. It can then drag the Nifty Midcap 150 index down to 20,000.
As mentioned last week, 20,000 is a strong long-term support and is likely to hold well. So, the fall to 20,000 can be a very good buying opportunity.
As long as the index stays above 20,000, there is no change in the bullish view. We retain the view of the Nifty Midcap 150 index rising to 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term. A strong break above 22,800 will clear the way for this rally.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (15,422.20)
The crucial support level of 15,000 is holding well. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index made a low of 15,140 and has risen back from there. If the index manages to sustain above 15,000, then a rise to 16,000-16,500 can be seen in the short term.
In case the index declines below 15,000, the next strong long-term support is around 14,000. A fall beyond 14,000 is unlikely. So, if a fall to 14,000 is seen, then that is going to give us a very good long-term buying opportunity.
As long as the Nifty Smallcap 250 index stays above 14,000, a rise to 22,500-23,000 over the long term cannot be ruled out. A decisive rise above 18,300 can open the doors for this rally.
Published on March 7, 2026