India sourced 43% of its petroleum and petroleum products from GCC countries, Iraq and Iran in 2024, compared with 84% by Japan, 67% by Korea, and 42% by China.
“Producers with significant assets in Japan, Korea, India and China are most exposed because of their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil and the dominance of naphtha – an oil-derived product – as the primary feedstock for Asia’s steam crackers,” said Moody’s Ratings.
It noted that a prolonged conflict could push Brent crude to about $135 per barrel in the second quarter, keeping prices above $100 for months before easing toward $90 by end-2026. It identified three key transmission channels for global credit risk, that is, energy markets and supply chains, tighter macro-financial conditions, and broader geopolitical disruptions.
