It could be a testing period for Indian agriculture, given the problems arising out of the Iran war and a higher probability of El Nino emerging after June this year.
The storage in the major reservoirs is higher than a year ago and normal (past 10 years), but the likely scenario that could unfold over the next 2-3 months will have some impact.
Current storage position
According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), the storage in the 166 major reservoirs was 46.54 per cent of the 183.565 billion cubic metres (BCM) capacity at 85.432 BCM. The level was 10.5 percentage points higher than last year and 21 percentage points more than normal.
The CWC’s weekly bulletin on the reservoirs’ storage showed that only 10 per cent of the reservoirs were filled over 80 per cent of the capacity, while the level in 82 was below 50 per cent of the capacity.
Stress signals
Storage in the southern and central regions was lower than a year ago. However, storage in Assam, West Bengal, Karnataka and Telangana was worrisome.
In the 47 reservoirs of the southern region, the level was 38.2 per cent (39 per cent a year ago) against the 55.288 BCM capacity at 21.119 BCM, with the storage in all the States below 50 per cent. Barring Andhra and Telangana, the level is lower than last year in the rest.
In Andhra Pradesh, the level was 43 per cent, while it was 36.5 per cent in Karnataka, 40.5 per cent in Kerala, 45 per cent in Tamil Nadu and 33 per cent in Telangana.
In the central region’s 28 reservoirs, storage was 45.81 per cent (46.83 per cent) or 22.256 BCM of the 48.588 BCM capacity. The level in Madhya Pradesh was lower than last year at 42 per cent (50 per cent). In Chhattisgarh, storage was 70 per cent, while it was 49 per cent and 40 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
In the western region, the level was the highest at 60 per cent. Storage in the 53 reservoirs in the region was 22.863 BCM out of the 38.094 BCM capacity. Gujarat dams were filled to 61 per cent, while those in Goa and Maharashtra were filled to 56 per cent and 59 per cent, respectively.
The level in the 11 reservoirs in the northern region was 45 per cent of the 19.836 BCM capacity at 8.845 BCM. Storage in Himachal was 38 per cent, but it was 58 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively, in Punjab and Rajasthan.
The 27 reservoirs in the eastern region had a storage of 47.5 per cent. The level was 10.349 BCM of the 21.759 BCM capacity. The level in West Bengal, a key rice-growing State, is 25 per cent, while in Assam it was down to 17 per cent. The level in Jharkhand was 60.5 per cent, while in Odisha it was 49 per cent.
Input cost pressures
Experts said the problem for Indian agriculture is that fertilizer prices have surged in the global market, and this could affect imports. Farmers may be selective in applying crop inputs, which could affect the yield.
Though the storage is higher than normal and a year ago, the possibility of El Nino could result in the reservoirs not being replenished if the South-West monsoon turns out to be deficient. Such an eventuality will affect the kharif and rabi crop prospects, they said.
This is likely to lead to food inflation, which is poised to rise in the coming months due to higher fuel prices.
Storage in the major reservoirs will likely drop further as summer sets in. However, much will depend on pre-monsoon rains.
Published on March 27, 2026