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Holiday reminder: Wall Street Breakfast won’t be published tomorrow, with markets closed for Good Friday.
Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:
Tariff watch: The White House is preparing to overhaul steel and aluminum tariffs, and eyes new levies on certain drugmakers.
Code leak: Anthropic (ANTHRO) is working to contain the leak of some internal source code for its AI agent Claude Code.
Renewed optimism: Recession odds on prediction market Kalshi (KALSHI) plummet after better-than-expected economic data.
President Donald Trump has quashed market hopes for a quick end to the Middle East war, saying the U.S. will strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. That likely means the Strait of Hormuz will continue to remain effectively closed, sending stock markets lower and oil prices higher once again.
Long road ahead: Trump said the U.S. will consider a ceasefire when the Strait of Hormuz is open and clear. “Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!” he declared. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the future of the waterway would be decided jointly by Iran and Oman after the war ends, and not by external powers. “From our point of view, the strait is currently open and is closed only to those who are at war with Iran,” Araghchi clarified. Iran has been imposing significant fees, reportedly up to $2M per tanker in some cases, for safe passage, with payments often coordinated in non-U.S. dollar currencies such as Chinese yuan.
Global response: The UK will host a summit of 35 countries to “assess all viable diplomatic and political measures we can take to restore freedom of navigation [in the Strait of Hormuz], guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers, and to resume the movement of vital commodities,” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab states are considering new export pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz despite high costs and complexities that stalled similar plans in the past. Viable near-term options include the expansion of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s existing route to Fujairah. Another option could be reviving plans for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, with Israel’s Haifa Port serving as a major gateway.
SA commentary: Investing Group Leader Bret Jensen warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz was reopened fully, the damaged assets in the region could take months – even years – to bring back online. Moreover, the oil reserves that have been released by countries will need to be replenished over time. “I expect disruption to global energy supply to last even after a ceasefire or a peace deal,” said SA analyst Geneva Investor. “This disruption cannot be understated, as it can be quantified as almost twice as large as that of the 1973 oil crisis overall.” Hormuz Situation Creates ‘Strait-Line’ Case For BNO Over USO
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Back To Bullion: Top Gold Stocks For The Yellow Metal Rebound
Sell The Rally – There Is No Easy Way Out Of Iran War
Amazon: This Is Worse Than You Think
Alphabet’s Solution Is A Gift For Micron’s Memory Sales
2 Undervalued 8-9% Yields The Market Is Sleeping On After Energy’s Huge Rally
What else is happening…
Trump floats NATO exit again as rift with European allies deepens.
Lucas drones, inspired by Iran’s tech, signal U.S. strategy shift.
Lilly (LLY) CEO opposes codification of Trump drug pricing deals.
Globalstar rallies on report of Amazon (AMZN) eyeing acquisition.
SpaceX (SPACE) files for IPO, plans to host analyst day in April.
Intel (INTC) to buy back 49% stake in Ireland fab JV for $14.2B.
Perplexity accused of sharing user search data with Google, META.
Apple (AAPL) maintains shine at 50 as it cautiously enters AI era.
Artemis II lifts off, sending astronauts on journey toward the moon.
Is Beijing constructing a new military base in the South China Sea?
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan -2.4%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.7%. India +0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -1.2%. Frankfurt -2.1%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -1.1%. S&P -1.3%. Nasdaq -1.7%. Crude +7.8% to $107.91. Gold -3.5% to $4,642.90. Bitcoin -3% to $66,427.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +4 bps to 4.37%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include American Resources (AREC) and Acuity (AYI).
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.