Only 1 Of The 4 Acting Oscar Categories Has A Winner Locked Up

The acting categories can often be some of the more predictable results at the Academy Awards, but that’s far from the case with the 2026 Oscars. The official nominees in all four categories have been known since early January. And while certain performances looked in prime position to bring Oscar wins, the awards season has made most of them wildly unpredictable.

Just as the nominees for groups like SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globes can be used to mostly predict who the Academy voters will recognize, the winners at these awards shows also matter. Something like the Globes has no voter overlap, but its position as a major televised ceremony gives it sway. Meanwhile, SAG’s voting body overlaps heavily with the Academy, making it quite predictive over the years.

We’re less than two weeks away from the 98th Academy Awards, which means all those ceremonies have wrapped up. Typically, that means there’s a clear indication of who is going to these categories. But this year has been anything but usual, leaving us with only one actor who has shored up their Oscar-winning position.

Jessie Buckley’s Best Actress Oscar Win Is Assured

Miraculously, Jessie Buckley has made it through all the major precursors unscathed. She’s been considered the frontrunner to win Best Actress since Hamnet debuted at Telluride (if not before). Rather than peaking too early, Buckley has swept through awards season.

Buckley won the Best Actress awards at the four biggest precursors: Golden Globes (in Drama), Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG), Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA. In the 30 years they’ve all been around, she’s now the 10th actress to do that.

The other nine — Renée Zellweger (Judy), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri), Brie Larson (Room), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line), and Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich) — all won Best Actress at the Oscars.

Considering the love her performance has received all season long, there’s no reason to think Oscar voters will bring a different result. Buckley is going to be an Oscar winner.

The Oscars’ Other Acting Categories Have Become A Toss Up

There is no consensus, safe, obvious pick to win the other acting categories, though. Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress all have multiple contenders legitimately vying for the win with just days to go until voting closes on March 5.

Best Actor

Best Actor looked to be Timothée Chalamet’s to win after recognition at the Globes and CCA. Then he lost BAFTA to the UK’s non-Oscar-nominee Robert Aramayo, and his standing became a bit more questionable. It’s now shakier than ever after Michael B. Jordan won at SAG.

It now appears the category could come down to Chalamet and MBJ, with Moura looming to steal their thunder. No actor has won Best Actor with SAG as their only precursor win, but you also have to go back to 2004 to find a winner who only had Globes and CCA (Sean Penn, Mystic River).

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actor is even messier. Stellan Skarsgård won at the Globes. Jacob Elordi got some love from CCA. Penn won at BAFTA and now secured the important SAG win, too. We haven’t had three winners among these four awards since 2015, when Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) won the Oscar on the back of only a BAFTA win.

The odds look to be in Penn’s favor at the moment, but his absence from awards shows and more controversial status could stop him from winning his third Oscar. The season has been so weird in this category that it wouldn’t totally shock me if it went to Delroy Lindo or Benicio del Toro, making either of them the first Best Supporting Actor winner since 1999 (James Coburn, Affliction) without a single victory in these precursors.

Supporting Actress

As for Supporting Actress, Teyana Taylor got off to a hot start with a Globes win and a strong speech. Amy Madigan then won at CCA, while Wunmi Mosaku surprised with her BAFTA win, throwing the race into true chaos. Madigan has arguably become the favorite now after winning at SAG, too.

She has the same precursor wins as previous Oscar winners, Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave). Madigan is also the only former nominee, which could give her a leg up.

Taylor will look to be the first winner to have only the Globes on her resume. If it was ever going to happen, a split year like this and a performance attached to the predicted Best Picture winner would be two factors to help make it possible.

Meanwhile, Mosaku is hoping to copy Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton), Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love), and Juliette Binoche (The English Patient) by riding a single BAFTA win to Oscar glory. Sinners‘ record-breaking nominations show there is plenty of love for the movie, so that could help push her performance over the top.

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In any case, there is no sure-fire winner of these three categories this year. So good luck predicting the 2026 Oscars winners correctly.