This category, like the rest, had its lineup confirmed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences on January 22 when the official Oscars 2026 nominations were announced. Those contending in Best Director are Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), and Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
With the five-person lineup now locked and the 98th Academy Awards happening shortly, on March 15, it’s time to make my final predictions in Best Director.
Commentary and predictions updated on March 10
5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
After the Safdie brothers split, it’s Josh, not Benny, who got into the Oscars race as a solo director. He consistently earned recognition throughout awards season for how well-crafted the intense sports drama is. That’ brought him nominations at DGA, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA.
But after losing all three, there’s seemingly no chance he wins. Also working against him are the disturbing reports about what occurred while making Good Time. Even if that had nothing to do with making Marty Supreme, it contributed to the bad press against the film, which has hurt the A24 feature in many ways.
4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
The Norwegian filmmaker secured his first Oscar nomination with Sentimental Value, making Joachim Trier the only international filmmaker in the category this year. His recognition here adds to the nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA, giving him a very strong showing during awards season.
However, his miss at DGA is tied to Trier’s lower chances to win. The Best Director Oscar winner has never been someone who wasn’t a DGA nominee at the very least. In fact, the winners for both awards have matched all but 8 times over the years. Trier would have to break that historical trend to win this category. And Sentimental Value lacks the support to do so.
3. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
As the only former Best Director Oscar winner in this year’s lineup, Chloé Zhao put up a strong fight through awards season. Hamnet is another strong, emotional feature from her, and there’s certainly plenty of support for her within the industry. She’s one of three Best Director nominees this year to have nominations at the Oscars, Golden Globes, DGA, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA.
While Zhao could be the first woman to be a two-time Best Director Oscar winner, the odds are against her after losing at all the major precursors. Still, she’s only the second woman (and first of color) to earn multiple nominations in the category.
2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Like Zhao, Coogler secured nominations for his directing at all the major awards this year. Even though this is his first Best Director placement, Sinners‘ record number of nominations shows the wide support his movie has within the industry. And even though he didn’t win at any of the major precursors, I can’t completely rule out Coogler winning Best Director at the Oscars.
It will be a historic victory for him if he’s recognized with the win at the 98th Academy Awards. He’d be the first Black filmmaker to win the Best Director Oscar; he’s only the seventh Black director to be nominated, joining John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins, Jordan Peele, and Spike Lee. He’ll just need to overcome the heavy favorite to accomplish this.
Predicted Best Director Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Paul Thomas Anderson certainly appears to be on a collision course with Best Director, winner for One Battle After Another. After three prior nominations in the category (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, or Licorice Pizza), the director has been as close to an undisputed choice here all season long.
PTA had a flawless run during precursors, winning at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, DGA, and BAFTA. It’d be a nearly unprecedented loss for him at the Oscars after the accolades he’s received already.
This result should still come regardless of whether One Battle After Another wins Best Picture. A split between Director and Picture (which has happened nine times 2000) would likely go in PTA’s favor here, while the most expected matching scenario would be for his film winning both.
The strength of his work, plus the strong overdue narrative, makes him my pick to win Best Director at the Oscars 2026. If Anderson doesn’t win, though, I’d expect Coogler to be the reason.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Location
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Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
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March 15, 2026
- Website
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https://www.oscars.org/