Our Final Predictions For Oscars 2026’s Best Picture Lineup: Who Will Win?

This awards season is nearly over, with the Oscars 2026 imminent, meaning it’s time to finalize Best Picture predictions. I’ve been handling these prediction pieces for the last few years for ScreenRant, keeping a close eye on the state of the race, one that has been dominated by One Battle After Another and Sinners this year.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences revealed the full 10-film lineup for Best Picture as part of the Oscars 2026 nominations. The nominees are Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams.

Now that all the major precursors are done, let’s take one final look at Best Picture ahead of the 98th Academy Awards taking place on March 15. Here’s how I see things shaking out.

Commentary and predictions updated on March 10

10. F1

Apple’s F1 connected well with Oscar voters, securing four nominations, including its placement in the biggest category. While it sparked some surprises initially, despite its PGA nomination, F1‘s Best Picture nomination is deserved.

The feel-good sports movie doesn’t seem to hold any real chance to win this category. But there is a chance F1 becomes an Academy Award-winning film thanks to its other nominations.

9. Train Dreams

Netflix has two Best Picture nominees again in 2026, with Train Dreams the weaker contender to win the category. It had a solid showing with its four nominations overall. The quiet drama has a solid profile to support this placement through precursors with nominations at the PGA, WGA, and Critics’ Choice Awards.

Even though Train Dreams has plenty of support, it is a big long shot to win here. It lacks major precursor wins to support belief in its ability to cross the finish line here, even with the preferential ballot system used by the Academy for Best Picture.

8. Bugonia

Bugonia holds a solid position in the Best Picture race, even if it still isn’t in the top tier of contenders. The four nominations it received from Academy voters is tied for the lowest of any Best Picture nominee this year. But its support all awards season long has been much stronger than F1 and Train Dreams.

Yorgos Lanthimos’ movie, for which Emma Stone shaved her head, picked up key nominations at the Golden Globes, PGA, WGA, and Critics’ Choice Awards. It was also on the BAFTA longlist but missed out on an official nomination. But after falling short of major wins at any of those awards, this won’t be Lanthimos’ first Best Picture-winner, after nominations for The Favourite and Poor Things.

7. The Secret Agent

Brazil’s The Secret Agent is contending in a few different categories at the Oscars, with it holding chances to win for Best Actor and Best International Feature Film. With four Oscar nominations overall, it will need wins in those other categories to have a chance of taking home the top prize.

The Secret Agent did not have a big presence in Best Picture precursors, only snagging a nomination at the Golden Globes for Best Motion Picture – Drama, which it lost. But it’s showing at the Globes overall was very strong — winning for Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language and Best Actor – Drama.

It would be a mistake to ignore the chance that international voters make The Secret Agent a much more legitimate contender to win Best Picture. Should Wagner Moura win Best Actor earlier in the night or the film takes Best Casting, its odds of winning the top award will skyrocket. If it does, it’ll be the first international film to win the category since Parasite in 2020.

6. Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro delivered Netflix’s strongest Best Picture nominee this year with Frankenstein, which shook off a rocky start to awards season by becoming an audience favorite. The nine nominations it sports show just how much support it has within the Academy.

Frankenstein has one of the strongest profiles of the nominees thanks to nominations at the Golden Globes, PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA, and Critics’ Choice Awards. It was also longlisted at BAFTA. Yet, it didn’t win top prizes at any of those shows, suggesting the support just isn’t quite big enough.

It also falls just shy of a top-five position here due to del Toro missing out on a nomination. Only six movies have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, with CODA being the last in 2022. It doesn’t seem like Frankenstein will be the seventh, unless it leaps stronger contenders through preferential voting.

5. Marty Supreme

A24 is looking to add another Best Picture winner to its filmography with Marty Supreme, but its odds are dropping. Timothée Chalamet is no longer a shoo-in winner for Best Actor, and its seven additional nominations could all fail to deliver wins, too.

While Marty Supreme was one of four movies this year to have earned a nomination at the seven major precursors: Golden Globes, PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA, its inability to get the last win knocks it down a peg.

4. Sentimental Value

Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value is positioned as the strongest international contender to win Best Picture. While it was overlooked by three of four Hollywood guilds (SAG, DGA, and WGA), it has fared better abroad. The nomination at the Golden Globes was crucial, and it is the only non-English film in BAFTA’s nominees.

It holds great potential to pull off the surprise with its nine Oscar nominations, as recognition in Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and four acting nominees shows the appreciation that exists. And with the increasingly international voting body, Sentimental Value could be the biggest benefactor. It’s Neon’s best chance to repeat Anora‘s win last year, too.

3. Hamnet

Hamnet has been a major force throughout award season. The eight Oscar nominations Chloé Zhao’s movie received confirm there is a lot of love for it within the Academy. And considering she’s already helmed a Best Picture-winning film (Nomadland), there is additional proof of how much her work connects with voters.

Her Shakespeare movie also had nominations from the seven main precursors, and its one of two to already have a win. Hamnet won Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, confirming that there is still a real chance it could win the Oscars’ biggest category if it plays stronger on the preferential ballot used for Best Picture.

The best argument in favor of Hamnet, which has Steven Spielberg backing it as a producer, is that it can consistently finish above one of the year’s top contenders on the preferential ballot. And should they then split votes somewhat, Zhao’s film could sneak out with a victory.

2. Sinners

This is where it gets tricky. In my heart, Sinners is what I want to predict to win Best Picture. The record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations loudly show how beloved the movie is across all sectors of the industry. And it received a notable precursor win with Best Cast at the Actor Awards, which has matched with Best Picture 50% of the time since the former’s introduction.

Supporting Sinners‘ case is the expected Oscar wins in Original Screenplay and possibly Best Editing. It also appears poised to walk out with at least one win among the four acting categories, plus possibly even more below-the-line wins. It’s not inconceivable that Sinners could win six or seven Oscars without Best Picture, which would be a tally that suggests winning the top category, too.

But instead of following my heart, I’m going to listen to my head and give the edge to the film that has been rewarded all season long with similar awards. And yet, I will not be shocked at all if Sinners actually wins Best Picture to cap off its immensely successful run in theaters and during award season.

Predicted Best Picture Winner: One Battle After Another

Best Picture is One Battle After Another‘s to lose. It was nominated at all seven big precursors and won at six: Golden Globes, PGA, DGA, WGA, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA. And with it holding 13 Oscar nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson’s movie clearly resonated with voters.

With PTA expected to win Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, One Battle After Another will have a Best Picture-winning resume should it also take home one of four acting nominations and key below-the-line categories, like Editing or Cinematography. Even though it could finish the night with fewer wins than Sinners, it has earned the favorite status after its award season performance.

The only blemish on its profile is losing at the Actor Awards, with Sean Penn not even in attendance to accept the film’s lone win of the night. And since Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo each got to give speeches on Sinners‘ behalf days before voting closed, it’s possible that could make the difference.

But rather than read into that too much, I’m going to follow the math here, which says One Battle After Another is a runaway frontrunner to win Best Picture. (The Oscars Model gives OBAA a 86.6% chance to win; THR‘s math gives it a 62.8% chance) Maybe that’ll be wrong, though, and Sinners will deliver a still somewhat stunning “upset.”

At the end of the day, whether One Battle After Another or Sinners is crowned, the Oscars 2026 winner for Best Picture will go down as one of the best in recent memory.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions: