TECHNICAL ANALYST, ASIT C MEHTA INVESTMENT
Where is Nifty headed?
Escalating global uncertainties and a sharp rise in crude prices have weighed on Nifty, leading to a breakdown below the key support levels of 24,300 and 23,800. The index is currently trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its previous rally and has also slipped beneath the 100-week EMA, which had acted as a key support since July 2020. From a technical perspective, the next support for the index is placed around 22,800, followed by 22,000, while 23,800–24,300 now emerges as a critical resistance zone. Trading Strategy: The index has plunged sharply over the past week, pushing momentum indicators into oversold territory. Hence, any oversold bounce or pullback towards the resistance zone should be utilised to initiate fresh short positions, given the favourable risk–reward profile. Short Nifty Feb futures around the 23,800– 24,000 zone, keeping a stop-loss above 24,500 for a downside target of 23,300–22,800.
TOP STOCK BETS
IPCA Laboratories: Buy at CMP: Rs 1,561, Stop-loss: Rs 1,480, Target: Rs 1,700
The stock has shown relative outperformance amid broader market weakness. A rebound from the flat Ichimoku cloud, positive future cloud and limited lagging-span resistance, along with a MACD reversal near the average line, indicates strengthening bullish momentum.
Hero MotoCorp: Sell at CMP: Rs 5,206, Stop-loss: Rs 5,500, Target: Rs 4,700
The stock has given a breakdown from a bearish Head & Shoulders price pattern and has slipped below the 200-day EMA. The MACD has reversed from the zero line and generated a bearish crossover, reinforcing the weakness in price momentum.
RUPAK DE
SENIOR TECHNICAL ANALYST, LKP SECURITIESWhere is Nifty headed?
Crude prices, which formed a golden crossover (50DMA above 200DMA) for the first time in 2.5 years, sent shockwaves through equities as well as the rupee. On the other hand, a death cross might form in Nifty as the positive gap between the 50DMA and 200DMA is decreasing. The sentiment looks very weak and, on the lower end, the index might extend its correction towards 22,300/19,100. On the other hand, sentiment improves above 24,000.
Trading Strategy: Indicators like RSI have slipped into the oversold zone; however, in this type of intense sell-off we should not rely only on the indicator. We should watch the price pattern, which looks very weak. Any bounce might be good for further selling. Initial selling pressure was seen in IT; now banking and auto stocks are falling sharply. The next corrective leg, when it starts, will likely be more severe and most sectors will participate in it.
TOP STOCK BETS
Indian Bank: Sell at Rs 871, CMP: Rs 870, Stop-loss: Rs 890, Target price: Rs 840
The stock has given a consolidation breakdown, indicating weakness in the counter.
Sun Pharmaceutical: Sell at: Rs 1,805, CMP: Rs 1,801, Stop-loss: Rs 1,850, Target price: Rs 1,730
The stock has formed a double top, after which bullish momentum started to wane. Bearish divergence is visible on the daily RSI.
RAJESH PALVIYA
HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVES, AXIS SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty concluded the week with a pronounced bearish candle, recording a lower high and lower low compared to the previous week — a clear signal of sustained selling pressure. Crucially, the index’s weekly close decisively breached its five-year up-sloping trendline support, previously situated near 24,400. This level has now transformed into a major overhead resistance zone. Immediate downside support is between 22,900 and 22,800. A decisive break below this band could trigger a deeper market correction, potentially driving the index towards 22,500. Supply zones are clustered in the 23,800–24,400 range, where selling activity is expected to intensify. Analysts recommend adopting a ‘sell on rise’ strategy unless the index manages a weekly closing above 24,000. The bearish near-term momentum is further confirmed by technical indicators.
Trading Strategy:
For the March 24 expiry, a Put spread is recommended, catering to a moderately bearish market outlook. Buy one lot of 23,200-strike Put (estimated premium: Rs 400–Rs 420) and simultaneously sell one lot of 22,800-strike Put (premium: Rs 265–Rs 285). This defined-risk strategy sets a clear range for outcomes, limiting both potential loss and profit. The break-even point for this spread is 23,045. The maximum potential loss is capped at Rs 10,075, while the maximum profit potential is Rs 15,925.
TOP STOCK BETS
Coal India: Buy CMP: Rs 467, Stop-loss: Rs 440, Target Price: Rs 495
Stock is witnessing a consolidation breakout near the Rs 440-435 zone on daily charts, indicating a continuation of the prevailing uptrend. Rising volumes along with price stability above 20-DMA signal accumulation at lower levels. The formation of higher bottoms and improving momentum indicators suggests the stock may gradually move toward the `485-495 levels in the coming sessions.
Indian Bank: Sell CMP: Rs 870, Stop-loss: Rs 895, Target Price: Rs 840
Stock is having Weak daily/weekly structure with lower high low formation on weekly chart, price has broken below the short-term rising trendline, trading below 20DMA /50 DMA. The RSI slope is downward, indicating further downside risk unless strong support holds.