On Friday, the Nifty closed at 24,450.45, down 315.45 points or 1.27%, while the Sensex settled at 78,918.90, falling 1,097 points or 1.37%.
The sell-off was triggered by mounting geopolitical tensions in West Asia, where shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz came to a near halt as the US–Iran conflict deepened. Brent crude surged above $85 per barrel, while US crude spiked 8.5 per cent to $81 — its largest single-day jump since 2020. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that “concerns intensified after shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz saw a near halt… raising fears of disruptions to global oil supplies.”
India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, surged over 11 per cent on Friday, closing at 19.88, signalling a sharp rise in investor anxiety. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, cautioned that “a sustained rise in oil prices could weigh on investor sentiment and adversely affect India’s twin deficits, inflation trajectory, and the RBI’s monetary stance.”
Amid supply concerns, the US administration granted India a temporary window to continue importing Russian crude, offering partial relief. However, broader market sentiment remained fragile, with 2,396 stocks declining against 1,812 advancing on the BSE. A total of 258 stocks hit 52-week lows, compared to just 69 touching fresh 52-week highs.
Banks drop
Sectoral performance was largely negative. PSU Banks bore the brunt of the weekly sell-off, declining 6.5 per cent, while the India Tourism index lost 5.88 per cent. Friday saw the Nifty Private Bank index fall 2.3 per cent, Nifty Financial Services decline 2.1 per cent, and Nifty PSU Bank drop 2 per cent, after the RBI proposed tighter norms on the bundling of insurance products with bank loans. On the other hand, the Defence index surged 4.85 per cent for the week, rising 2.8 per cent on Friday alone, as geopolitical tensions fuelled expectations of higher defence spending.
Among Nifty 50 gainers on Friday, BEL led with a 2.52 per cent rise to ₹469.60, followed by ONGC (+1.28 per cent to ₹279.90), Reliance Industries (+1.27 per cent to ₹1,407), NTPC (+0.82 per cent to ₹381.15), and Hindalco (+0.59 per cent to ₹960.60). On the losing side, ICICI Bank was the biggest decliner, falling 3.13 per cent to ₹1,315.10, followed by Eternal (-2.96 per cent to ₹233.04), Shriram Finance (-2.77 per cent to ₹1,010.70), SBI (-2.54 per cent to ₹1,139.80), and Axis Bank (-2.54 per cent to ₹1,314.90).
The rupee weakened by ₹0.13 to close at 91.71 against the dollar. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said “higher oil prices increase India’s import bill, which tends to weigh on the rupee,” adding that the currency could face continued downside pressure, with a trading range of 91.25–92.50 expected in the near term. Gold traded sideways between ₹1,59,500 and ₹1,60,000, with CME gold near the $5,100 level, as markets awaited US Non-Farm Payrolls data. Trivedi flagged “support near ₹1,58,000, resistance near ₹1,62,000.”
Outlook ahead
Looking ahead, the market outlook remains cautious to negative. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, warned that “the index remains below the previous swing low, indicating continued bearishness,” with the Nifty potentially sliding toward 24,000 or lower. “Until 25,000 is crossed decisively, the trend is likely to favour a sell-on-rise strategy,” he added.
Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities, pegged immediate Nifty support at 24,300–24,000 and resistance at 24,500, while for Bank Nifty, the 200-day SMA at 57,500 remains a key support, below which 56,800–56,500 could come into play. Weekend geopolitical developments will be the dominant factor shaping Monday’s market open.
Published on March 6, 2026