On the other hand, the global equity markets were knocked down badly initially. However, some markets managed to recoup some of the loss in the second half. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index were down 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively for the week.
Gold remained volatile. Surprisingly it has not gained much sheen at this time of huge uncertainty. The yellow metal price went up 2.7 per cent initially, but then fell giving back all the gains. Indeed, it closed the week down about 2.7 per cent.
Dollar index gained about 1.2 per cent for the week. It was up just over 2 per cent intraweek. Looking at this, it clearly shows that the dollar index is gaining more of the safe-haven status this time compared to gold. The reason could merely be because gold price has already surged a lot.
On the domestic front, the Indian benchmark indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex fell about 3.5 per cent each during the week. They recovered from the lows and ended the week down about 2.9 per cent each.
The Indian rupee fell 1.4 per cent and marked a new low of 92.30 against the dollar last week. The domestic currency closed the week at 91.75, down 0.84 per cent.
What next?
The big question now is where the market is headed from here. Will the war disrupt the oil supply? How long can this war go on? Will the situation worsen further with other countries getting pulled into the fight? These are some of the questions for which we do not have a concrete answer as of now. That makes the situation more complex and unpredictable. So, we keep all these questions aside without attempting to find an answer.
However, we take a different approach to forecast where the market is headed by analysing the historical price movement alone using charts and technical analysis. Many may argue that forecasting using charts at times of high uncertainty may not work. Known fundamentals are already discounted, and the price reacts to unknown fundamentals. Technical analysis work under this premise.
So, here is our analysis and forecast on Brent Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Gold and Indian Rupee based on charts. To know where the domestic equity indices (Sensex, Nifty 50, Bank Nifty) are headed, please read our ‘Index Outlook’ column on Chart-Gazing page of this edition.
Brent Crude: More upside
Brent Crude Oil ($84.40 per barrel) has clearly made a bullish breakout on the charts. The price has been trading inside a bear channel since end-September 2023. Additionally, this breakout has happened after forming a double-bottom pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern.
The recent rise also indicates that the long-term downtrend that has been in place since mid-2022 has come to an end. The neckline support of the double-bottom pattern is coming around 79. On the other hand, the channel support (resistance-turned-support) will come in the 74.50-73 region.
Immediate support is around $89.20. If the momentum sustains and the price stays above $89.20, a further rise to $98-99 can be seen from here. Thereafter a corrective fall to $90-$88 is a possibility.
Can oil surpass the $100 mark? Chances cannot be ruled out. A rise above $100, can take it higher to $108 eventually. Our preferred move would be to see $98-$99 now. Then see a correction to $90 and then surge to $108.
The price has to fall below $89.2 in order to see $84 or $80 on the downside. Only then the chances of a rally above $100 will reduce. But that is unlikely as long as the US-Iran war prolongs. But that is unlikely as long as the US-Iran war prolongs.
Take away: Be prepared for higher oil price and high inflation.
Dollar Index: Ready for a bullish trend reversal
Barring the fall to a low of 95.55 in January this year, the dollar index (98.85) has been broadly range bound between 96 and 100.40 since June 2025. For now, 97.60 can be a strong immediate support. Crucial resistances to watch are 100.40 and 101.30.
A monthly close above 100.50 will be an initial sign of the bulls gaining strength. A subsequent rise above 101.30 will then boost the bullish momentum. That in turn can take the dollar index higher to 103 initially. Such a rise will mark the end of the downtrend and indicate that a fresh leg of upmove has begun. This upmove will have the potential to take the dollar index up to 105-106 this year.
Ideally, a break below 95.50 and a subsequent fall below 95 is needed to negate the above-mentioned bullish view. For that to happen, the dollar index has to sustain below 101.30.
Dollar & Crude moving together
But an interesting study between the Brent Crude Oil and the dollar index indicates that a rise to 103 and 105-106 on the dollar index is more imminent. The price chart of Brent Crude and dollar index shows that both are moving in the same direction since 2022.
Historically, dollar and oil price move in opposite direction. But things seem to have been changed after Covid, especially from 2021. So, over the last five years, dollar and oil are having a good directional correlation, barring some short periods. Within this, since 2022, the correlation seems to have strengthened.
A close observation on the price movement indicates that the dollar index moves with a slight lag. If this correlation remains, then the expected rise to 108 on the Brent Crude can easily take the dollar index up to 105-106.
Take away: Currencies, especially those that of the emerging market, can get beaten down going forward. Commodity price such as metals can also fall.
Gold: A mixed picture
Gold ($5,150 per ounce) price went up as an initial reaction to the attack on Iran. However, the price has come down after making a high of about $5,420. Strong supports are at $5,000 and $4,800. There is no danger for the broader uptrend as long as the price stays above $4,800. A rise to $5,600 is possible again. From a big picture perspective, if the momentum gains, then $5,900-6,000 can also be seen on the upside.
However, looking at the price action on the daily candles since February, it looks like the yellow metal is losing strength. As such, the chances of the upside being capped at $5,600 cannot be ruled out. So, one possibility is that gold can remain higher but in a wide range of $5,000-5,600 or $4,800-5,600 rather than going up to $5,900-6,000.
This will mean that the dollar can be a more preferred safe-haven option this time. This could also be because gold price has already soared a lot, whereas the dollar index is at the bottom of a downtrend.
The uptrend in gold will come under threat if the price declines below $4,800. Such a move will indicate that a top is in place and will drag the price down to $4,500.
Gold/Brent ratio (61.80)
In order to get clarity on where the gold price is headed, we analysed the gold/Brent crude ratio. This ratio is obtained by dividing the price of gold by Brent crude. Ratios help us identify which among the two elements taken will outperform. For instance, if the gold/Brent ratio goes up, it means, gold is outperforming oil and vice-versa.
It also helps in forecasting. If we have the forecast for the ratio (gold/Brent) and any one of the elements (say Brent), then we can calculate where the third (gold) is headed. Using this concept, we attempt here to see where gold price is headed.
The recent price action in this ratio confirms a top and a bearish trend reversal. Resistances for the ratio are at 57.30 and 60. The ratio can fall to 53 initially. Any bounce there after will be capped. Eventually, there is room for the ratio to see 48 or even 46 on the downside from here.
A rise to 108 on Brent Crude and a fall to 48 or 46 on the gold/crude ratio will give us a range of about $4,970-$5,185 for gold. So, if this view works out well, then gold price may not go above $5,600. Instead, it can remain in a range.
Take away: This may not be the right time to buy gold afresh as the safe-haven sentiment seems to be switching.
Rupee: Double whammy
High crude oil price and a strong dollar could be a double whammy for the Indian Rupee. High oil price increases the risk of India’s trade deficit widening in the coming months. The trade deficit is at $34.68 billion as of January. This could widen to $40 billion or even more than that.
This will have an impact on India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) as well. The CAD is at $13.2 billion in the October-December quarter of the fiscal year 2026. This is 1.3 per cent of GDP. There is a danger of the CAD widening further.
Widening deficit coupled with a strong dollar can drag the rupee lower against the dollar.
On the charts, there is a strong resistance for the rupee at 90.50 and 90. The rupee is currently at 91.75. The current movement is in the form of a bear channel, as seen from the weekly chart. This channel resistance is coming around 91. As long as the rupee stays below 91, it can fall to 93-93.10 in the coming weeks.
If it manages to recover from around 93, then a rise back to 92-91 is a possibility. Such a recovery is also possible if the central bank intervenes around 93. In that case, 91-93 (narrow) or 90-93 (wide) can be the trading range for some time.
However, from a long-term perspective, rupee is unlikely to go above 90. The downside remains open to see 96.50-96.70. The pace and the time taken for this fall will depend on how much the central bank intervenes.
Take away: Weak rupee will make your overseas travel, education etc costlier, going forward.
Published on March 7, 2026