The Dow Jones has tumbled about 9 per cent in the last five weeks. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index have declined 7.8 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively over the same period.
The Dow Jones is coming close to a key support. But the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite are still vulnerable to fall more. The weakness in these two indices may keep the Dow Jones vulnerable to break below its upcoming support. We will have to wait and see what happens.
Dow Jones (45,166.64)
A crucial support is in the 45,000-44,900 region. A bounce from this support zone can give some relief for the Dow Jones. That in turn can trigger a corrective rise to 46,000-46,500.
But, there needs to be some caution since the other two benchmark indices are looking weak. So, the chances of the Dow breaking below 44,900 cannot be ruled out. If that happens, then the current fall can extend to 44,000.
The price action in the 45,000-44,900 region will need a close watch this week.
S&P 500 (6,368.85)
The fall to 6,380 mentioned last week has happened as expected. The S&P 500 index touched a low of 6,356. Strong resistance is now in the 6,450-6,470 region which can cap the upside if there is an intermediate bounce.
As long as the index trades below 6,470, the outlook will remain bearish. The S&P 500 index can fall to 6,200-6,180 from here.
The index has to rise above 6,500 in order to get some relief. But that looks unlikely at the moment.
NASDAQ Composite (20,948.36)
Last week we had expected a corrective bounce from 21,200 first and then a fresh fall breaking below 21,200. But instead, the NASDAQ Composite index has declined below 21,200 without seeing a corrective rise. That keeps intact our broader bearish view.
Immediate resistance is around 21,300. Above that 21,700-22,000 will be the next strong resistance zone. The chances are high for the index to remain below 21,300 itself.
NASDAQ Composite index can fall to 20,300 and even 19,800 in the coming weeks.
Dollar Outlook
The dollar index (100.19) remained stable and range-bound. The index has been oscillating between 98.85 and 100.50 over the last couple of weeks.
The bias remains positive. Support is in the 99-98.50 region which is holding very well. The dollar index can rise to 101-101.20 in the coming weeks.
A decisive break above 101.20 can boost the momentum. Such a break can take the dollar index higher to 103-104 in the medium term.
Failure to breach 101.20 can drag the index down to 100-99.50 again.
Our preference is to see the dollar index rising above 101.20 if not immediately but eventually.
Treasury Yield
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.43 per cent) has sustained well above 4.3 per cent and has risen further as expected. That keeps intact our broader bullish view.
Immediate resistance is at 4.45 per cent. A decisive break above this resistance can take the US 10Yr Treasury Yield higher to 4.6 per cent in the coming weeks.
The yield has to decline below 4.3 per cent to turn the outlook negative. But that looks less likely for now. As such the rise to 4.6 per cent is likely to happen first.
Published on March 28, 2026